CRU's December 2014 edition of the Sulphur Market Outlook reports in detail on the condition of the global sulphur market and the prospects in the medium term for supply, demand, trade and prices (2014-2019). Appendix A of the report provides our longer term view and the outlook to 2039 for supply, demand and the long run equilibrium prices for sulphur. A number of key questions are shaping the sulphur market in the short to medium term and influencing CRU's outlook:
China returns to imports in Q4 2014, but will the price reaction be as strong as in Ql 2014? Prices declined during Q3 2014, as China managed stock and import levels, but the trend has since reversed. The price surge in late 2013 and early 2014 was driven by an upswing in import demand in China and a lack of international availability. As of late 2014, China has higher supply and higher producer stock, but also lower port stocks for sulphur than in 2013. Demand is forecast to materialise in Ql 2015 but the market response is not expected to be as dramatic as in Ql 2014.
Projects commissioning in 2014 fail to generate a surplus. Will new supply in 2015 create the expected oversupply? Supply growth in 2014 was focussed in CIS and North America but failed to generate a market surplus. In 2015, the start up of Shah (UAE), Barzan (Qatar) and Chuangdongbei (China) will contribute to a supply growth of 3.66 million tonnes. The growth is forecast to generate a physical surplus but due to the location of some of the production increases, for example Turkmenistan, price are not forecast to be affected until 2016 when the balance grows further.
Can existing stock holders manage the market surplus from 2015? In 2015, CRU forecasts continued stock drawdown in Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and some parts of Canada which demonstrates the view that the market will not feel oversupplied until 2016. The key areas for stock growth in CRU's forecast are Turkmenistan, Russia and Canada. The lack of logistics infrastructure and cost to move sulphur to the market are the key reasons why these locations will manage the oversupply which CRU forecasts in the medium term.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 11

1.1 Global Sulphur Consumption 11

      1.1.1 Summary of key changes to the outlook 11

      1.1.2 Global overview 12

1.2 Phosphoric Acid 13

      1.2.1 Global overview 13

      1.2.2 Regional Market Forecasts 15

1.3 Ammonium Sulphate 18

      1.3.1 Global overview 18

      1.3.2 Regional Market Forecasts 19

1.4 SSP 21

      1.4.1 Global Overview 21

      1.4.2 Regional Market Forecasts 22

1.5 Copper SX-EW 22

      1.5.1 Global Overview 22

      1.5.2 Regional Market Forecasts 23

1.6 Nickel 24

      1.6.1 Global Overview 24

      1.6.2 Regional Market Forecasts 25

1.7 Uranium 25

      1.7.1 Global Overview 25

      1.7.2 Regional Market Forecasts 26

1.8 Industrial Demand 27

      1.8.1 Global Overview 27

      1.8.2 Regional Market Forecasts 27

1.9 Non-acid sulphur demand 28

      1.9.1 Global Overview 28

Chapter 2 - Supply 29

2.1 Summary of key changes to the forecast 29

2.2 World Overview 29

2.3 Sulphur supply by region 34

      2.3.1 North America 34

      2.3.2 Central/South America 39

      2.3.3 Europe 39

      2.3.4 CIS 41

      2.3.5 Middle East 43

      2.3.6 East Asia 46

      2.3.7 South Asia 48

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance and Prices 49

3.1 Trade 49

      3.1.1 Recent Developments: Imports 49

      3.1.2 Recent Developments: Exports 51

3.2 Balance and Trade Outlook 52

      3.2.1 Global Sulphur Market Balance 52

      3.2.2 Regional market forecasts 56

3.3 Prices 63

      3.3.1 Recent Price Developments 63

Appendices

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the Sulphur Market 71

Appendix B - Economic Outlook 95

Appendix C - World Sulphur Production by Raw Material,2012-2019 115

Appendix D - Elemental Sulphur Production by Country,Region and Source, 2012-2019 119

Appendix E - World Sulphur Consumption by End Use, 2012-2019 125

Appendix F - Elemental Sulphur Consumption, 2012-2019 131

Appendix G - Pyrites Production by Country and Region, 2012-2019 135

Appendix H - SOF Production by Country and Region, 2012-2019 137

Appendix I - Elemental Sulphur Balance, 2012-2019 141

Appendix J - Sulphur Imports, 2012-2019 145

Appendix K - Sulphur Exports, 2012-2019 149

Appendix L - Elemental Sulphur Trade Matrix, 2013 153

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