LME copper prices drifted lower in Q3 2014 as the market moved from heavy deficit in Q2 (-250,000t) to balance in Q3 (-22,000t). The major factors behind this move were a seasonal slowdown in demand; continued growth in world refined copper production and reduced SRB purchases.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1

The outlook for consumption 11

      1. Key points 11

      2. Global developments 13

      2.1 Refined consumption overview 13

      3. Regional development 16

      3.1 Asia 16

      3.1.1 India 16

      3.1.2 North East Asia 17

      3.1.3 Indonesia and Thailand 18

      3.1.4 China 19

      3.2 Europe 21

      3.2.1 Eastern and Central Europe 21

      3.2.2 Western Europe 22

      3.3 Americas 24

      3.3.1 North America 24

      3.3.2 South and Central America 25

      3.4 Other 26

Chapter 2

The outlook for production 29

      1. Key points 29

      2. Supply outlook 31

      2.1 Refined copper production 31

      2.2 Mine production 34

      2.3 Alternative scenario: risks to the development of Codelco's structural projects 37

      2.4 Smelting and electro/fire-refining 39

      2.4.1 Blister production 39

      2.4.2 Electro/fire-refined production 41

      2.4.3 Scrap feed 42

      3. Mining developments 44

      3.1 Trends at key mines 44

      3.1.1 Ore grades 46

      3.1.2 Labour disruption 47

      3.2 Mine projects 48

      3.2.1 Mergers and acquisitions 51

      4. Smelting & electro/fire-refining developments 52

      4.1 Trends at key operations 53

      4.1.1 Maintenance closures 53

      4.2 Projects 53

Chapter 3

The supply/demand balance and prices 57

      1. Key points 57

      2. Recent trends 58

      3. Short term market outlook 62

      4. Medium term outlook 65

      5. Mining Costs 70

      6. Investor activity 71

Appendix A:

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2018 75

Appendix B:

Recent supply side developments 104

      1. Mergers and acquisitions/Company news 104

      2. Mine production 106

      2.1 Africa 106

      2.1.1 Mauritania 106

      2.1.2 Zambia 106

      2.2 Asia 106

      2.2.1 China 106

      2.2.2 Indonesia 106

      2.2.3 Mongolia 107

      2.3 Australasia 107

      2.3.1 Australia 107

      2.4 North America 107

      24.1 Canada 107

      2.4.2 USA 108

      2.5 South and Central America 108

      2.5.1 Chile 108

      2.5.2 Mexico 109

      2.5.3 Peru 109

      3. Smelter production 110

      3.1 Africa 110

      3.1.1 Zambia 110

      3.2 Asia 110

      3.1.2 Indonesia 110

      4. Exploration and Development 111

      4.1 Asia 111 4.1.1 Mongolia 111

      4.2 Australasia 111

      4.2.1 Papua New Guinea 111

      4.3 South and Central America 111

      4.3.1 Chile 111

      4.3.2 Peru 112

      5. Stakeholder issues 113

      5.1 Africa 113

      5.1.1 Zambia 113

      5.2 Asia 113

      5.2.1 Indonesia 113

Appendix C:

Additional copper supply tables 115

Appendix D:

Mine, mine project, smelter and refinery production by operation 123

Appendix E:

Production forecasting methodology and guide to Chapter 2 & Appendix D tables 229

Appendix F:

Regional production of copper semi-fabricated products 235

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