Investors have sparked a number of rallies in zinc prices this year and, although none has been long or strong enough to encourage consumers to cover too, these have pushed average quotations above our expected level. So too in 2015, we know that mining will stop at Century around mid-year, that milling will end maybe three months later and that Lisheen will be exhausted too.

Executive summary 1

Chapter 1: Recent developments 11

1. Summary 11

2. Metal consumption 12

3. Mine and smelter production 16

4. Market balance and prices 22

      4.1 Metal market balance 22

      4.2 Reported metal stocks 26

      4.3 Index fund investment 28

      4.4 LME prices 30

      4.5 Regional balances and premia 32

Chapter 2: Market forecast 35

1. Summary 35

2. Metal consumption 38

3. World mine production potential 50

      3.1 Summary 50

      3.2 Committed production outside China 52

      3.3 Presently uncommitted ex-China projects 61

      3.4 Chinese production potential 66

4. World smelter capacity 71

      4.1 Summary 71

      4.2 Forecast capacity in China 73

      4.3 Committed developments outside China 78

      4.4 Presently uncommitted projects 81

5. Market balance and prices 83

      5.1 Concentrate market balance 83

      5.2 Metal market balance 90

      5.3 LME prices 97

      5.4 Custom concentrate treatment terms 101

Appendix A: Industrial and economic outlook 2014-18 105

1. Summary 105

2. Industrial production, autos and construction 109

3. Exchange rates 119

4. Macroeconomic outlook 121

5. Scenarios 128

Appendix B: Recent project-by-project supply-side developments 131

1. Australia 131

2. Europe 133

3. North America 135

4. China 142

5. Other Asia 146

6. Africa 147

Appendix C: Unit-by-unit forecasts of production and capacity 149

Statistical Review 165

1. Historical price data 165

2. Historical stock data 170

3. Historical market balance 174

4. Historical production data 176

5. Consumption indicators 187

      5.1 Historical consumption data 187

      5.2 Galvanised sheet production 193

      5.3 Brass production 194

      5.4 Construction industry 197

      5.5 Vehicle industry 198

6. Data for the former Western World and East Bloc 202

冶金工业信息标准研究院