The main development since the last nickel market outlook has been the increased flow of nickel ore exports from the Philippines. The surge in exports has extended the life of high-grade Indonesian material which has kept Chinese nickel pig iron production stronger than was expected early this year.

Executive summary

Chapter 1

Recent market trends 9

      1. Prices slump into Q4 9

      2. Economic trends & stainless steel demand 10

      2.1 Stainless demand growth to slow as China rebalances 10

      3. Stainless steel production 12

      3.1 Melted output accelerates in Q2 12

      4. Scrap use 14

      4.1. Availability continues to weigh on prices 14

      5. Primary nickel consumption in stainless steel 16

      5.1. Weak domestic demand has little impact on Chinese output 16

      6. Consumption in non-stainless uses 17

      6.1. Nickel demand growth in non-ferrous sector picks up 17

      7. Overall primary nickel consumption trends 19

      7.1. China's share of primary nickel demand is growing 19

      8. Regional outlook 20

      8.1. North America 20

      8.2. Western Europe 21

      8.3. Japan 22

      8.4. China 23

      8.5. Other Asia 24

      8.6. Rest of world 25

      9. Nickel mine production 26

      9.1. Mine production to fall by 26% in 2014 26

      10. Refined nickel production 32

      10.1. Global supply on track to see no growth this year 32

      11. Supply/demand balance & stocks 36

      11.1. Tightness delayed 36

      12. Prices 38

      12.1. Prices tumble on new shorts 38

Chapter 2

The market outlook 41

      1. Large metal surpluses are now firmly in the past 41

      2. Economic trends and stainless steel demand 42

      2.1 Chinese slowdown mitigated by strength elsewhere 42

      3. Stainless steel production 43

      3.1 Growth to slow towards 4% by 2019 43

      3.2 Nickel prices to encourage some limited substitution away from 300-series stainless 44

      4. Scrap use 43

      4.1. Scrap use to slow after strong 2014 growth 43

      5. Primary nickel consumption in stainless steel 45

      5.1. Consumption growth remains strong to 2019 45

      6. Consumption in non-stainless end-uses 47

      6.1. Regional variations but global demand follows IP 47

      7. Overall primary nickel consumption 49

      7.1. Consumption from China's stainless industry to slow 49

      8. Regional outlook 50

      8.1. North America 50

      8.2. Western Europe 51

      8.3. Japan 52

      8.4. China 53

      8.5. Other Asia 54

      8.6. Rest of world 55

      9. Nickel mine production 56

      9.1. Mine production to rise by 11% in 2015 56

      10. Refined nickel production 62

      10.1. Surge in Philippine ore exports to support higher Chinese NPI 62

      11. Supply/demand balance & stocks 67

      11.1. Market heading for deficit in 2015 despite surge in Philippine ore 67

      12. Price prospects 71

      12.1. Higher prices still on the horizon 71

      13. Recent trends in investor activity 73

      Outlook for commodity investing 79

Appendix A

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014 - 2019 81

Appendix B

Greenfield projects & Brownfield expansions 107

      1. Overview 107

      2. Firm Projects 108

      3. Probable Projects 113

      4. Possible Projects 121

Appendix C

Nickel in China 145

      1. China's stainless steel outlook 145

      1.1 Stainless Steel output growth to slow in years ahead 145

      1.2 China's nickel demand outlook 148

      1.3 China's nickel supply outlook 148

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