This is the third successive year of market deficits in the world ex. China, but the third one of surpluses in China, marking a clear divergence between the two regions.Closures of smelting capacity and a return to demand growth in the world ex. China have brought the market back to health. But, Chinese production continues to outpace demand, which will lead to sustained market surpluses over the forecast period.

Executive summary i

Chapter 1 1-1

Primary aluminium demand 1-1

      1. Chinese exports continue to claim market share 1-1

      2. Regional demand 1-8

      2.1 Asia 1-8

      2.1.1 China 1-8

      2.1.2 Japan 1-15

      2.1.3 South Korea 1-17

      2.1.4 India 1-18

      2.1.5 South East Asia 1 -20

      2.1.6 Middle East 1-21

      2.2 Australasia 1-23

      2.3 North America 1-24

      2.4 Central and South America 1-27

      2.5 Europe 1-29

      2.5.1 Western Europe 1-29

      2.5.2 Eastern Europe 1-31

      2.6 Africa 1-33

Chapter 2 2-1

The outlook for production 2-1

      1. Overview: Global aluminium production to reach 53.8Mt in 2014, up 6.3% y-o-y 2-1

      2. Changes to production 2-3

      2.1 Closures, disruptions and re-starts 2-3

      2.2 Idle capacity 2-6

      2.3 Disruptions and restarts 2-8

      3. The outlook for world production 2-9

      3.1 World production and capacity, 2013-2019 2-9

      3.2 Regional developments in production 2-10

      3.2.1 North America 2-10

      3.2.2 Europe 2-12

      3.2.2.1 Western Europe 2-12

      3.2.2.2 Eastern Europe and Russia 2-15

      3.2.3 Asia 2-17

      3.2.3.1 China 2-17

      3.2.3.2 Middle East 2-26

      3.2.3.3 India and other Asia 2-27

      3.2.4 Africa 2-29

      3.2.5 Australasia 2-30

      3.2.6 Central and South America 2-31

      3.3 Changes in ownership 2-33

      4. Raw materials 2-34

Chapter 3 3-1

The supply/demand balance and price outlook 3-1

      1. Overview: World ex. China market tightens 3-1

      2. Price and competitive material trends 3-5

      2.1 Comparative asset performance 3-5

      2.2 Index fund activity 3-6

      2.3 Outlook for commodity investing 3-11

      3. Supply/demand balance outlook, 2013-2019 3-12

      4. Actual and forecast stock changes, 2011-2019 3-15

      5. Price outlook, 2014-2019 3-18

      5.1 LME price forecasts 3-18

      5.2 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cash price outlook 3-22

      6. Alternative price scenarios 3-24

Chapter 4 4-1

Regional ingot premiums outlook 4-1

      1. Overview: LME wins appeal, but ingot premiums maintain high levels 4-1

      2. Premium and merchant price forecasts 4-3

      2.1 Premium forecasts 4-3

      2.1.1 LME warehouse rules, cancelled warrants and queues 4-6

      2.1.2 Rival contracts 4-8

      2.1.3 Contango financing 4-10

      2.2 Merchant price forecasts 4-11

      2.3 Risks and sensitivities 4-12

      2.4 Physical market premiums in China 4-13

      3. Regional balances and trade flows 4-14

      3.1 Regional balances 4-14

      3.2 Growing importance of Brazil 4-15

      3.3 Focus on Chinese exports 4-16

Appendix A A-1

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 A-1

Appendix B B-1

Glossary of consumption data definitions B-1

Appendix C C-1

Forecast semi-finished aluminium consumption, 2010-2019 C-1

Appendix D D-1

Forecasts of primary aluminium consumption, 2010-2019 D-1

Appendix E E-1

Estimates and forecasts of capacity and production by major producers, 2013-2019 E-1

Appendix F F-1

Industry news of changes to world capacity F-1

Appendix G G-1

World smelting capacity, 1999-2019 G-1

Appendix H H-1

Estimates and forecasts of changes to world production, 1999-2019 H-1

Appendix I I-1

Ownership of world smelting capacity I-1

Statistical review S-1

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