The aluminium rolled products industry has increasingly become a polarised sector of both opportunity and threat. The rewards are potentially great, with vast growth on offer in the automotive body sheet sector, high profits in the aerospace sector and within the expanding demand of the developing world.

Executive summary i

Chapter 1 1-1

China 1-1

      1. Developments in capacity 1-2

      1.1 Development of aluminium rolling projects 1-3

      2. Capacity forecasts 1-8

      3. Consumption 1-14

      3.1 The outlook for China 1-14

      3.1.1 The macroeconomic environment 1-14

      3.1.2 End-use Demand 1-14

      4. Net trade, production and operating rates 1-20

      4.1 Net trade 1-20

      4.2 Production and operating rates 1-22

Chapter 2 2-1

Asia ex. China 2-1

      1. Developments in capacity 2-2

      2. Capacity forecasts 2-3

      3. Consumption 2-6

      3.1 The outlook for Japan 2-6

      3.2 The outlook for South Korea 2-8

      3.3 The outlook for India 2-11

      3.4 The outlook for the rest of Asia 2-13

      3.5 Middle East 2-16

      3.6 Australasia 2-18

      4. Net trade, production and operating rates 2-19

Chapter 3 3-1

The Americas 3-1

      1. Developments in capacity 3-2

      2. Capacity forecasts 3-5

      3. Consumption 3-8

      3.1 The outlook for the USA & Canada 3-8

      3.1.1 The current situation 3-8

      3.1.2 Sectoral demand prospects 3-14

      3.2 The outlook for Central and South America 3-29

      4. Net trade, production and operating rates 3-32

      4.1 North America 3-32

      4.2 Central and South America 3-37

Chapter 4

Europe and Africa 4-1

      1. Developments in capacity 4-2

      2. Capacity forecasts 4-3

      3. Consumption 4-7

      3.1 The outlook for Western Europe 4-7

      3.2 The outlook for Eastern Europe 4-14

      3.3 The outlook for Africa 4-16

      4. Net trade, production and operating rates 4-18

Chapter 5 5-1

Prices, margins and net trade forecasts 5-1

      1. LME price and ingot premium forecasts 5-3

      1.1 LME price forecasts 5-3

      1.2 Premium forecasts 5-5

      1.2.1 LME warehouse rules, cancelled warrants and queues 5-8

      1.2.2 Rival contracts 5-10

      1.2.3 Contango financing 5-11

      2. Rolled product prices outlook 5-13

      2.1 North America 5-13

      2.2 Europe 5-15

      2.3 Japan 5-17

      3. Rolled products trade and price arbitrage 5-19

Appendix A A-1

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 A-1

Appendix B B-1

World rolled products consumption by sector B-1

Appendix C C-1

Chinese and Japanese rolled products consumption C-1

Appendix D D-1

North America rolled products consumption D-1

Appendix E E-1

European rolled products consumption E-1

Appendix F F-1

Aluminium rolled products trade data and prices F-1

Appendix G G-1

Aluminium rolled products capacity changes G-1

Appendix H H-1

Aluminium mill capacity rankings by producer and country H-1

Appendix I I-1

Detailed ownership by equity of aluminium rolling mills, November 2014 I-1

Statistical review S-1

冶金工业信息标准研究院