The longer-term path of international silicon prices will be influenced to a considerable degree by what happens to Chinese demand, supply and production costs. Contingent on a continued advance in global solar-related silicon demand, improved

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1

Demand 11

1. Overview by major consuming sector 12

      1.1 Solar sector spurs gains in chemicals-related demand 12

      1.2 Use of silicon in aluminium linked to auto production 12

2. Overview by major geographic market 13

3. Silicon consumption by major country and region 15

      3.1 US will remain leading market in the Americas 15

      3.2 Growth in European demand remains sluggish 16

      3.3 Demand in the CIS affected by crisis in the Ukraine 19

      3.4 Strong but uneven growth in Asian demand 21

      3.5 Rapid growth in silicon demand in the Middle East 28

4. Total world consumption 29

5. Methodology 30

Chapter 2

Supply 31

1. Production by country and company 32

      1.1 Americas - Brazilian output sinks to 13-year low 32

      1.2 European output at an all-time high 35

      1.3 Production in the CIS affected by plant closures 36

      1.4 China continues to dominate Asian supply 37

      1.5 South African output recovers 40

      1.6 FerroAtlantica, Elkem and Dow Corning stay on top 41

2. Production capacity 42

      2.1 Asia/Pacific leads growth in non-Chinese capacity 42

      2.2 Large and diverse pipeline of new silicon projects 47

      2.3 Substantial new capacity still being added in China 51

Chapter 3

Balances 53

      1. Inventories 54

      2. International trade 55

      2.1 China will remain the dominant exporter 55

3. Supply/demand balance 61

      3.1 Capacity utilisation to climb through 2018 61

Chapter 4

Prices 65

1. Recent price developments 66

      1.1 US market leads 2014 price gains 66

      1.2 Quality premiums are increasing 68

2. Price projections 70

      2.1 Outlook shaped by demand and production costs 70

      2.2 Gain in inflation-adjusted prices to be sustained 71

Appendix A

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014 - 2019 75

Appendix B

Chinese capacity 101

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