Rock demand stimulated by growth in Middle East, China and India: global demand in 2014 has been raised compared to previous outlooks, as MAP production in China, a faster-than-expected ramp-up of JIFCO in Jordan, and improved import requirements in India have supported consumption.
Global production has also revised upwards, particularly in China: In order to meet stronger-than-expected demand, mining in China has picked up (specifically in Hubei). Most of the growth, though, came from large operations, with small miners struggling to cover mining costs at the current price levels.
OCP has made inroads into Bayovar, but has lost out in Brazil/USA: OCP is facing the prospect of lower demand in the USA (specifically from Mosaic and MissPhos). Meanwhile, its sales into Brazil have also fallen in Q3 due to aggressive competition. On a positive note though, OCP has been able to re-gain a share of the Mexican market (from Bayovar) and re-started shipments to Oceania.
Prices to fall below the LRMC, but remain above the SRMC: Once the export focused junior mining projects are commissioned, prices are forecast to fall below the industry's trigger price for new greenfield investments (i.e. the Long Run Marginal Cost of Production). Prices will, however, remain above the Short Run Marginal Cost, encouraging new brownfield expansions and integrated investments.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 13

1.1 Overview of global phosphate rock demand 13

1.2 Overview of phosphate rock demand 18

      1.2.1 Asia 18

      1.2.2 North America 20

      1.2.3 Central and South America 21

      1.2.4 Africa 22

      1.2.5 Rest of the World 24

Chapter 2 - Supply 27

2.1 Overview of global phosphate rock supply 27

2.2 Overview of regional phosphate rock supply 30

      2.2.1 North America 32

      2.2.2 Africa 34

      2.2.3 Middle East 36

      2.2.4 China 38

      2.2.5 Central and South America 40

      2.2.6 Rest of the World 42

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance & Prices 45

3.1 Recent developments and forecasts for trade 45

3.2 Medium term outlook for phosphate rock prices 49

      3.2.1 Phosphate rock supply/demand position 49

      3.2.2 The outlook for freight rates 51

      3.2.3 The outlook for exchange rates 51

      3.2.4 The outlook for phosphate rock prices through to 2019 52

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the phosphate rock market 55

A.1 Introduction 55

A.2 The long term outlook for phosphate rock demand 55

A.3 The long term outlook for phosphate rock supply 62

A.4 Determining a long term trend price for phosphate 63

      A.4.1 Introduction to Marginal Cost theory 63

      A.4.2 Selection of the long run marginal producers 64

      A.4.3 Phosphate rock LRMC in 2012 67

      A.4.5 Escalation of the long run marginal cost 69

A.5 Risks to the outlook 71

Appendix B - Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 73

B.1 Overview 73

B.2 Exchange rates 78

B.3 Macroeconomic outlook 80

B.4 Scenario 89

Appendix C - Total Phosphate Rock Consumption 2011-2019 93

Appendix D - Total Phosphate Rock Production 2011-2018 95

Appendix E - Total Phosphate Rock Capacity 2011-2019 97

Appendix F - Total Phosphate Rock Imports 2011-2019 99

Appendix G - Total Phosphate Rock Exports 2011-2019 101

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