The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won a parliamentary majority in the pre-term election in March 2014 and a government led by the prime minister and SNS leader, Aleksandar Vucic, is strongly placed to push through its reform agenda in 2014-18.
The government will face tough economic policy challenges, particularly the need to consolidate the state finances and reduce public debt. These issues have been rendered more difficult by the devastating floods in May 2014.
The dinar will remain subject to volatility in the short term, but we forecast a modest real appreciation (against a trade-weighted basket of currencies) in i 2016-18. Compared with the average of 7.6% in 2013, inflation will moderate gradually over the next five years, to a forecast average of 3% in 2018.

Country forecast overview 6

Highlights 6

Business environment rankings 7

Fact sheet 8

Outlook for 2014-18 9

Political outlook 9

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 12

Data summary 14

Data sources and definitions 19

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