Qatar will remain stable in 2014-18 under the rule of the new emir. Vocal opposition to the government will remain minimal as Qataris continue to benefit from the country's huge hydrocarbons wealth.
The price of Brent crude is forecast to drop to an annual average of US$101/barrel in 2014-18, from an estimated US$109/b in 2013, as added supplies come on stream in 2015-18 from North America and Australia. Although liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices are forecast to remain high by historical standards, Qatar will come under growing pressure to depart from oil indexation and long-term contracts as key importers of LNG can choose from a wider range of suppliers.
Rising imports and services debits, coupled with generally declining oil and gas prices in 2014-18, will see the current-account surplus narrow gradually and average 9.2% of GDP a year over the five-year forecast period. The narrowing of the surplus will continue in 2017-18, as oil prices drop well below US$100/b, to an annual average of 4.9% of GDP.

Country forecast overview 6

Highlights 6

Business environment rankings 7

Fact sheet 8

Outlook for 2014-18 9

Political outlook 9

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 12

Data summary 14

Data sources and definitions 19

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