A snap election on July 13th 2014 was won by the recently formed Party of Miro Cerar (SMC), led by its namesake, who formed a centre-left coalition including the Party of Slovenian Pensioners (DeSUS) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SD). The coalition has a comfortable majority, holding 52 out of 90 parliamentary seats, but is likely to be politically fragile.
Slovenia continues to breach EU mandated budget rules by a very wide margin, with the 2013 budget deficit inflated by bank recapitalisation costs. The Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the budget deficit to return to within the 3% of GDP limit required by the EU's Stability and Growth Pact by 2015 as agreed with the European Commission. However, deficits will moderate slowly.
Stable international commodity prices and weak demand should keep inflation low in the short term, before a fester pace of growth takes hold in 2015-18. We forecast that the current account will remain in surplus, albeit declining, in 2014-18, as exports continue to perform well. This trend will be helped by a services surplus and an improved current transfers balance.

ML 5

Country forecast overview 6

Highlights 6

Business environment rankings 7

Fact sheet 8

Outlook for 2014-18 9

Political outlook 9

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 13

Data summary 16

Data sources and definitions 21

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