The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won a parliamentary majority in the pre-term election in March 2014 and a government led by the prime minister and SNS leader, Aleksandar Vucic, is set to dominate the political scene over the forecast period.
The IMF has made it clear that a major change of course in economic policy is required before it will agree to a new loan arrangement. We expect a new arrangement to be agreed around the middle of the year, after the new government has adopted a revised budget for 2014.
We forecast average real GDP growth of 3.8% per year in 2015-18, following a growth slowdown to 1% in 2014, from 2.5% in 2013. After contracting to the equivalent of an estimated 4.9% of GDP in 2013, the current-account deficit will stabilise at around 6-7% of GDP in 2014-18.

Country forecast overview 6

Highlights 6

Business environment rankings 7

Fact sheet 8

Outlook for 2014-18 9

Political outlook 9

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 12

Data summary 14

Data sources and definitions 19

中国科学技术信息研究所