Dealing with the consequences of the economic and financial crisis of 2008-09 and the sovereign debt crisis will occupy Europe's political classes for years to come. Rising Euroscepticism will act as a brake on integration, and may even throw it into reverse. Further EU enlargement is under threat, as economic weakness exacerbates the existing anti-enlargement mood in parts of the EU. The fact that EU aspirants fall short of the required standards for membership has also undermined support for enlargement.

Fact sheet 6

Summary 7

Political outlook 9

Introduction 9

Political stability 9

The new-look EU 12

Election watch 13

External relations 14

The future of the UK 15

EU enlargement 16

Macroeconomic policy 18

Fiscal policy 18

Monetary policy 19

Interest rates 20

The future of the euro zone 20

Economic forecast 21

Economic growth 23

Inflation 26

Exchange rates 27

Business environment rankings 28

Data sources and definitions 31

Data summary 32

Guide to the business rankings model 35

List of indicators in the business rankings model 36

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