LME copper prices have fallen heavily over the last two months. The 3-month quote shed almost $ 1,200/t between 21stt November and 14th January to reach a five-and-a-half year low of $5,555/t. In contrast to Q3 2014, copper's positive market fundamentals have proved insufficient to support prices in the face of a slump in oil prices, a stronger dollar and mounting evidence of a slowdown in China. Although we had expected some price erosion in Q4 2014, the final outturn, at $6,568/t for the LME 3-month quote, was lower than previously forecast.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1

The outlook for consumption 11

1. Key points 11

2. Global developments 13

      2.1 Refined consumption overview 13

3. Regional developments 16

      3.1 Asia 16

      3.1.1 India 16

      3.1.2 North East Asia 17

      3.1.3 Indonesia and Thailand 18

      3.1.4 China 18

      3.2 Europe 21

      3.2.1 Eastern and Central Europe 21

      3.2.2 Western Europe 22

      3.3 Americas 24

      3.3.1 North America 24

      3.3.2 South and Central America 26

      3.4 Other 27

Chapter 2

The outlook for production 29

1. Key points 29

2. Supply outlook 31

      2.1 Refined copper production 31

      2.2 Mine production 33

      2.3 Smelting and electro/fire-refining 36

      2.3.1 Blister production 36

      2.3.2 Copper concentrates balance 38

      2.3.3 Electro/fire-refined production 40

      2.3.4 Scrap feed 41

3. Mining developments 43

      3.1 Trends at key mines 43

      3.1.1 Ore grades 44

      3.1.2 Labour disruptions 45

      3.2 Mine projects 47

      3.3 Mergers and acquisitions 49

4. Smelting & electro/fire-refining developments 51

      4.1 Trends at key operations 51

      4.2 Projects 53

Chapter 3

The supply/demand balance and prices 55

1. Key points 55

2. Recent trends 56

3. Short term market outlook 59

4. Medium term market outlook 62

5. Mining Costs 66

Appendix A:

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 69

Appendix B:

Recent supply side developments 95

1. Mergers and acquisitions/Company news 96

2. Mine production 98

      2.1 Africa 98

      2.1.1 Botswana 98

      2.1.2 Zambia 98

      2.2 Asia 98

      2.2.1 Indonesia 98

      2.2.2 Mongolia 98

      2.3 Australasia 99

      2.3.1 Australia 99

      2.4 North America 99

      2.4.1 USA 99

      2.5 South and Central America 99

      2.5.1 Chile 99

      2.5.2 Peru 100

3. Smelter production 101

      3.1 Africa 101

      3.1.1 Zambia 101

      3.2 Asia 101

      3.2.1 China 101

      3.2.2 Indonesia 101

      3.3 Australasia 101

      3.3.1 Australia 101

3.4 North America 102

      3.4.1 US 102

      3.5 South and Central America 102

      3.5.1 Chile 102

4. Exploration and Development 103

      4.1 Africa 103

      4.1.1 DR Congo 103

      4.1.2 Zambia 103 4.2. Asia 103

      4.2.1 China 103

      4.2.2 Iran 103

      4.2.3 Myanmar 103

      4.3 Australasia 104

      4.3.1 Australia 104

      4.3.2 Papua New Guinea 104

      4.4 North America 104

      4.4.1 Canada 104

      4.4.2 US 104

      4.5 South and Central America 104

      4.5.1 Chile 104

      4.5.2 Peru 105

5. Stakeholder issues 106

      5.1 Africa 106

      5.1.1 Zambia 106

      5.2 South and Central America 106

      5.2.1 Chile 106

Appendix C:

Additional copper supply tables 107

Appendix D:

Mine, mine project, smelter and refinery production by operation 115

Appendix E:

Production forecasting methodology and guide to Chapter 2 & Appendix D tables 225

Appendix F:

Regional production of copper semi-fabricated products 231

冶金工业信息标准研究院