Already falling from summer highs of over $2,200/t, LME lead prices have plunged further this winter to touch 30-month lows below $l,800/t, driven by a wider commodity collapse on investor concerns over slower Chinese and European growth and a stronger US dollar. Lacking any compelling bullish story to cushion its fall, lead was hit harder than most.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 13

Recent developments 13

1. Summary 13

2. Metal consumption 16

3. Metal production 23

      3.1 Mine output 23

      3.2 Smelter output 28

4. Market balance and prices 39

      4.1 Lead concentrate market 39

      4.2 Refined metal market 44

      4.3 Regional markets and premia 48

      4.4 Stocks 53

      4.5 Investor influence 57

      4.5 Prices 62

Chapter 2 65

Market forecast 65

1. Summary 65

2. Metal consumption 68

3. Metal production 82

      3.1 Mine output 82

      3.2 Smelter output 95

4. Market balance and prices 115

      4.1 Lead concentrate market 115

      4.2 Custom concentrate treatment terms 124

      4.3 Refined metal market 130

      4.4 Prices 139

Statistical review 147

1. Price data 148

2. Stock data 154

3. Supply-demand balance data 156

4. Production data 159

5. Consumption data 167

Appendix A 169

Industrial and economic outlook 169

1. Industrial production, autos and construction 173

2. Exchange rates 183

3. Macroeconomic outlook 185

4. Alternative scenarios 192

Appendix B 195

Production news 195

1.America 195

      1.1 North America 195

      1.2 Central and South America 198

2. Asia 199

4. Australasia 200

5. Europe 202

Appendix C 207

Production data 207

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