Lower recent quotations make it even more certain that zinc prices will surge before long. With profitability falling back, the long-standing reluctance to invest in new mine capacity has spread to the smelting sector, and this has added another constraint to medium-term zinc supply. Although there are other headwinds, lower oil prices will meanwhile be a net benefit for the world economy, so cuts to our demand forecast are less severe. The global metal market will therefore stay in deficit, and all spare stocks will be used up soon. The further prices fall in the immediate term, the more certain we are that their rebound will be a boom.

Executive summary 1

Chapter 1: Recent developments 11

1. Summary 11

2. Metal consumption 12

3. Mine and smelter production 16

4. Market balance and prices 22

      4.1 Metal market balance 22

      4.2 Index fund investment 26

      4.3 LME prices 28

      4.4 Reported metal stocks 30

      4.5 Regional balances and premia 32

Chapter 2: Market forecast 35

1. Summary 35

2. Metal consumption 38

3. World mine production potential 51

      3.1 Summary 51

      3.2 Committed production outside China 53

      3.3 Presently uncommitted ex-China projects 62

      3.4 Chinese production potential 67

4. World smelter capacity 74

      4.1 Summary 74

      4.2 Forecast capacity in China 76

      4.3 Committed developments outside China 81

      4.4 Presently uncommitted projects 84

5. Market balance and prices 86

      5.1 Concentrate market balance 86

      5.2 Metal market balance 92

      5.3 LME prices 100

      5.4 Custom concentrate treatment terms 103

Appendix A: Industrial and economic outlook 2015-19 106

1. Summary 106

2. Industrial production, autos and construction 111

3. Exchange rates 121

4. Macroeconomic outlook 123

5. Scenarios 130

Appendix B: Recent project-by-project supply-side developments 133

1. Africa 133

2. Australia 135

3. Europe 137

4. North America 142

5. China 145

6. Other Asia 148

Appendix C: Unit-by-unit forecasts of production and capacity 149

Statistical Review 165

1. Historical price data 165

2. Historical stock data 170

3. Historical market balance 174

4. Historical production data 176

5. Consumption indicators 187

      5.1 Historical consumption data 187

      5.2 Galvanised sheet production 193

      5.3 Brass production 194

      5.4 Construction industry 197

      5.5 Vehicle industry 198

6. Data for the former Western World and East Bloc 202

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