Manganese ore prices will stay low this year, as lower costs are exploited and the battle for market share continues. In the medium-term, higher cost tonnes from China must exit in order to return the market to balance and gradually support higher prices. The regional price premium for manganese ferroalloys in the US vs. Europe has entered new territory, reaching over $150/t for SiMn during four quarters. Convergence of these markets is a long way off but, in 2015-16, we expect prices in the US to retreat, while losses to price resulting from the Euro crash are slowly recovered in Europe.

Executive summary 1

Chapter 1

Manganese ferroalloy demand 13

1. The Outlook for Steel 13

      1.1 Overview 13

      1.2. Regional patterns 14

2. Manganese consumption 22

      2.1 Summary 22

      2.2 Unit consumption 23

      2.3 Silico-manganese 25

      2.3.1 Recent trends 25

      2.3.2 Five-year forecast 26

      2.4 High-carbon ferromanganese 28

      2.4.1 Recent trends 28

      2.4.2 Five-year forecast 29

      2.5 Refined ferromanganese 31

      2.5.1 Recent trends 31

      2.5.2 Five-year forecast 32

Chapter 2

Manganese ferroalloy supply and trade 35

1. Global supply forecast 35

2. Regional manganese ferroalloy supply 37

      2.1 South Africa 37

      2.2 Europe 39

      2.3 Russia 41

      2.4 Ukraine 42

      2.5 Middle East 43

      2.6 N. America 44

      2.7 Brazil 45

      Insight: Brazilian electricity situation 46

      2.8 India 47

      2.9 China 48

      2.10 N.E.Asia 49

      2.11 Australia 50

      2.12 Malaysia 51

      2.13 Indonesia 52

Chapter 3

Manganese ferroalloy balances and prices 53

1. Summary 53

      1.1 Market balance and price forecasting methodology 54

2. Supply/demand balance 55

      2.1 Silico-manganese 56

      2.2 High-carbon ferromanganese 56

      2.3 Refined ferromanganese 57

3. Prices 59

      3.1 Silico-manganese 61

      Insight: The role of India in international silico-manganese pricing 63

      3.2 High-carbon ferromanganese 66

      3.3 Medium-carbon ferromanganese 67

Chapter 4

Manganese ore demand 71

1. Summary 71

2. Recent developments 73

3. Five year consumption outlook 74

Insight: How exposed is manganese ore demand to Chinese crude steel production forecasts? 76

Chapter 5

Manganese ore supply and trade 79

1. Calm before the storm 81

Chapter 6

Manganese ore balances and prices 87

1. Summary 87

2. Recent developments 90

3. Outlook 91

冶金工业信息标准研究院