Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest and predominantly driven by increased coal output. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to weigh on growth.Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

BMI Industry View 7

Downside Risks 7

New Entrants 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Coal: Solid Growth Over Coming Years 10

New Projects 11

More IPOs Ahead 12

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Poland 2010-2018) 13

Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 13

Weak Copper Prices Constitute Greatest Downside Risk 15

      Table: Copper Production Forecast (Poland 2010-2018) 15

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16

Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind 17

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 17

Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter 18

Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 19

Rewards 19

Industry Rewards 19

Country Rewards 19

Risks 20

Industry Risks 20

Country Risks 20

      Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018) 21

Regulatory Development 22

Tax Regime 23

      Table: Political Overview 23

      Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook 24

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26

Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 26

Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 28

Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 29

Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 30

Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 31

Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 32

Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 34

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 36

Competitive Landscape 37

      Table: Poland - Major Mining & Metals Companies - Financial Data 38

Company Profile 39

KGHM 39

      Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data 42

Jastrzębska Spolka Węglowa (JSW) 43

      Table: JSW - Key Financial Data 45

Regional Overview 47

Europe Overview 47

      1. Coal Production Growth Mainly In The East, But Upside In Germany 47

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 49

      3. More Stringent Regulation On The Horizon 51

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 51

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 52

      5. Public Opposition To Present Major Downside Risk 53

Global Industry Overview 54

Challenges 54

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 58

Cause For Optimism 61

Methodology 68

Industry Forecast Methodology 68

Sources 69

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 70

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 72

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