BMI is forecasting GDP growth of 6.1% in 2014. This uptick in economic expansion is expected to continue over our forecast period to 2018 when we forecast Kenya's GDP will reach US$80bn by 2018. Further supporting the domestic vehicle market is rising private consumption, positive investor sentiment and booming economic expansion in Tanzania and Uganda.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 8

Political 8

Economic 9

Business Environment 10

Industry Forecast 12

      Table: Vehicle Registrations 2011-2018 12

Macroeconomic Forecasts 17

Economic Outlook 17

      Table: KENYA - GDP BY EXPENDITURE 23

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25

Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings 25

      Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa 28

Competitive Landscape 29

Company Profile 34

Company Monitor 34

      Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013 35

Regional Overview 36

Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014 36

Competition Heats Up In Kenya 36

Hubs Developing? 38

      Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects 38

Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa 40

Global Industry Overview 41

      Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) 41

Europe On Road To Recovery 41

Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 43

China Is BRIC Bright Spot 45

Demographic Forecast 48

Demographic Outlook 48

      Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 49

      Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 50

      Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 51

      Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 51

Methodology 52

Industry Forecasts 52

Sector-Specific Methodology 53

Sources 53

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 54

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 55

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