The Russian metals sector will face headwinds over coming quarters as European and US demand remains weak and global oversupply weighs on metal prices. We expect production of key metals to remain modest, with company investment plans focusing on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Global Oversupply To Weigh On Growth 11

High Relative Capacity Utilisation Rates 14

      Table: Russia - Steel Production ('000 tonnes) 15

      Table: Russia - Steel Production & Trade ('000 tonnes) 15

Aluminium: Weak Growth Outlook 16

      Table: Russia - Primary Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 19

Nickel: Weak Prices To Prevent Output Gains 19

      Table: Russia - Nickel Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes) 22

Regulatory Development 23

Key Details 23

      Table: Political Overview 25

Commodities Forecast 27

Commodity Strategy 27

Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will 27

Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices 29

Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak 30

Copper: All Eyes On China 31

Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers 32

Nickel: Monthly Outperformer 34

Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field 35

Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely 36

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 37

Steel Price Forecast 38

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 38

Short-Term Outlook 38

Core View 38

Global Steel Glut To Persist 39

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 40

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 41

Excessive Chinese Exports 43

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 43

Risks To Price Outlook 44

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 45

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 46

Competitive Landscape 47

      Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data 48

Company Profile 49

Severstal 49

      Table: Severstal - Financial Data 52

Norilsk Nickel 53

Company Overview 54

Company Strategy 55

      Table: Norilsk Nickel - Financial Metrics 57

RUSAL 58

Latest Results 61

      Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data 62

Methodology 63

Cross Checks 63

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