The outlook for Iran's metals sector is improving for the first time years as sanctions begin to be eased following negotiations with the Western powers. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions 10

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Iran 2010-2018) 13

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Iran 2005-2012) 14

Regulatory Development 15

Corruption 15

Tax Regime 15

      Table: Iran - Political Overview 15

Commodities Forecast 17

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 17

Short-Term Outlook 17

Core View 18

Surplus Set To Slim 18

Production: Reining In Growth 19

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 21

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 23

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 23

Risks To Price Outlook 24

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 25

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 25

Commodity Strategy 27

Ferrous Metals: 27

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 27

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 28

Non-Ferrous Metals: 30

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 30

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 31

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 32

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 33

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 34

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 36

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 38

Competitive Landscape 39

      Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013) 39

      Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers 41

Company Profile 43

Mobarakeh Steel Company 43

Methodology 45

Cross Checks 45

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