The Russian metals sector will face headwinds over coming quarters as European and US demand remains weak and global oversupply weighs on metal prices. We expect production of key metals to remain modest, with company investment plans focusing on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Global Oversupply To Weigh On Growth 11

High Relative Capacity Utilisation Rates 14

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 15

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Russia 2005-2012) 15

Aluminium: Weak Growth Outlook 16

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 20

Nickel: Limited Growth Ahead 20

      Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Key Details 24

Political Risk Update 24

      Table: Political Overview 26

Commodities Forecast 28

Commodity Strategy 28

Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 28

Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 30

Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 31

Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 32

Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 33

Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 34

Tin: In A Sweet Spot 35

Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 36

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 38

Commodities Forecast 38

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 38

Short-Term Outlook 38

Core View 39

Surplus Set To Slim 40

Production: Reining In Growth 40

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 42

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 44

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 44

Risks To Price Outlook 45

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 46

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 46

Competitive Landscape 48

      Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data 49

Company Profile 50

Severstal 50

      Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data 53

Norilsk Nickel 53

Company Overview 55

Company Strategy 56

      Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 57

RUSAL 59

Latest Results 62

      Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis 62

      Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data 63

Methodology 64

Cross Checks 64

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