The outlook for Iran's steel sector remains poor; however, there are a few signs of light given the election of Hassan Rouhani and possible moderation in tone towards the West which could result in a reduction in sanctions on the metals sector. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term.

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 8

Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions 8

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 11

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 12

Regulatory Development 13

Corruption 13

Tax Regime 13

      Table: Iran - Political Overview 14

Commodities Forecast 15

Commodity Strategy 15

Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 17

Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 17

Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 18

Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 20

Zinc: Channelling Support 22

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 23

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 24

Commodities Forecast 25

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 25

      Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 33

Competitive Landscape 34

      Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2012) 34

      Table: Largest Listed Metal Producers In Middle East 37

Company Profile 38

Mobarakeh Steel Company 38

Methodology 40

Cross Checks 40

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