The outlook for Italy's metals sector is far from encouraging, as a combination of cheap Chinese imports, low domestic demand and few project expansions mean that growth in consumption and production will be sluggish over the period to 2018. However, we expect Italy to retain its position as the EU's second largest steelmaking country, with a 16% share of production and the status of a new producer. In 2014, we are forecasting steel production in Italy to reach 27.06mn tonnes (mnt), representing an increase of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). Similarly, we are forecasting steel consumption in Italy to rise by 1.4% y-o-y in 2014 to 22.53mnt.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 11

Metals SWOT 11

Industry Forecast 13

Steel: Few Positive Signs As Production Flatlines 13

Production: Plethora Of Issues To Deter Growth 15

Some Respite For Margins 15

Consumption: Muted Growth As Economy Flatlines 16

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Italy 2010-2018) 17

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Italy 2005-2012) 17

Commodities Forecast 19

Commodity Strategy 19

Ferrous Metals: 20

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 20

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 20

Non-Ferrous Metals: 22

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 22

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 23

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 24

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 25

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 26

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 28

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 30

Commodities Forecast 30

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 30

Short-Term Outlook 30

Core View 31

Surplus Set To Slim 32

Production: Reining In Growth 32

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 34

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 36

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 36

Risks To Price Outlook 37

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 38

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 39

Competitive Landscape 40

      Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metals Producers 41

Company Profile 44

Alcoa 44

Recent Financial Data 47

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 48

Methodology 49

Cross Checks 49

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