Mozambique will be one of the major growth stories in the global mining sector, as a combination of investment into the country's sizeable coal reserves and a relatively strong business environment coalesce to provide rapid growth in output. We expect the value of the country's mining sector to grow from US$259mn in 2012 to US$796mn in 2018, and increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.7% in 2018.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Gold: Lacklustre Growth Ahead 11

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 12

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Production 13

Coal: Mozambique To Become Global Growth Driver 14

India Takes An Interest 16

      Table: Mozambique - Largest New Coal Projects 17

Infrastructure A Downside Risk 17

Heightened Political Risk in Q413 18

      Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecast 18

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19

Risk/Reward Ratings 19

Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 19

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 20

Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 20

Mixed Rankings For West Africa 21

Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 21

Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 22

Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 23

Country Highlights 24

South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 24

Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 25

Botswana: All Round Outperformer 25

Market Overview 26

Coal To Fuel Mining Sector Growth 27

      Table: Mozambique - Key New Projects 27

Infrastructure & Political Risks 27

      Table: Mozambique - Mining Industry Value & Production 28

Regulatory Development 29

Recent Developments 29

Recent Developments Give Cause For Concern 29

Current Mining Law 29

Greater Environmental Concerns & Social Impact Considerations 30

Tax Regime 30

Corruption To Remain Key Concern 31

      Table: Mozambique - Political Overview 31

      Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 32

Commodities Forecast 34

Commodity Strategy 34

Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook 36

Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist 37

Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet 38

Lead: Outperformance On The Cards 39

Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead 40

Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue 42

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 43

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 44

Competitive Landscape 45

      Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 46

Company Profile 47

Rio Tinto 47

Company Overview 49

Company Strategy 50

Latest Financial Results 51

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 52

Vale 53

Company Overview 55

Company Strategy 56

Recent Financial Performance 57

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 58

Company Details 58

Regional Overview 59

Mining - Africa Overview 59

Key Opportunities 59

      1. Asian Investment Inflows To Continue 59

      2. Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 60

      3. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 61

      Key Challenges 62

      1. Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 62

      2. Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 63

      3. Regulatory Environment In Flux 64

      Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments 65

Global Industry Overview 66

Methodology 78

Industry Forecast Methodology 78

Sources 79

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 80

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 82

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 83

冶金工业信息标准研究院