Mozambique will be one of the major growth stories in the global mining sector, as a combination of investment into the country's sizeable coal reserves and a relatively strong business environment coalesce to provide rapid growth in output. We expect the value of the country's mining sector to grow from US$259mn in 2012 to US$724mn in 2017, and increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.9% in 2017.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Gold: Lacklustre Growth Ahead 11

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 12

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Production 13

Coal: Mozambique To Become Global Growth Driver 14

India Takes An Interest 16

      Table: Mozambique - Largest New Coal Projects 17

Infrastructure A Downside Risk 17

Heightened Political Risk in Q413 17

      Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecast 18

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19

Risk/Reward Ratings 19

Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 19

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 20

Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 20

Mixed Rankings For West Africa 20

Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 21

Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 22

Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 22

Country Highlights 23

South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 23

Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 24

Botswana: All Round Outperformer 24

Market Overview 25

Coal To Fuel Mining Sector Growth 26

Regulation To Become More Supportive 26

      Table: Mozambique - Key New Projects 27

Infrastructure & Political Risks 27

      Table: Mozambique - Mining Industry Value & Production 28

Regulatory Development 29

Recent Developments 29

Positive Regulatory Structure To Support Investment 29

Tax Regime 31

Corruption To Remain Key Concern 31

      Table: Mozambique - Political Overview 32

      Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 32

Commodities Forecast 34

Commodity Strategy 34

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 35

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 36

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 36

Copper: Continued Weakening 38

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 38

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 39

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 40

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 41

Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 42

Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 43

Competitive Landscape 44

      Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 45

Company Profile 46

Rio Tinto - Q1 2014 46

Company Overview 48

Company Strategy 49

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 51

Vale 52

Company Overview 54

Company Strategy 55

Recent Financial News 56

Company Details 57

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 58

Regional Overview 59

Africa Overview 59

      1. Chinese Investment Inflows To Continue 59

      2. Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 60

      3. Regulatory Environment In Flux 61

      Table: Key Regulatory Developments 62

      4. Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 62

      5. Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 64

      6. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 65

Global Industry Overview 66

Global Overview 66

Downturn To Continue Into 2014 66

      1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 66

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 67

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 69

But Opportunities Still Exist 71

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 71

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 73

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 74

Methodology 77

Industry Forecast Methodology 77

Sources 78

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 79

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 80

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 81

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