We forecast modest growth in the Egyptian steel sector over the coming years, in line with our outlook for the wider economy. We are taking into account the influence of the weak Egyptian pound on the sector and whether depreciation is sufficient to compete in an over-supplied regional market. We expect the worsening political situation to weigh on growth.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Need For Imports To Fill The Deficit 11

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Egypt 2010-2018) 14

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Egypt 2005-2012) 14

      Table: Egypt - Steel Production Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 15

Regulatory Development 16

Tax Regime 16

Corruption: A Key Concern 16

      Table: Egypt - Political Overview 17

Commodities Forecast 19

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 19

Short-Term Outlook 19

Core View 20

Surplus Set To Slim 20

Production: Reining In Growth 21

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 23

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 25

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 25

Risks To Price Outlook 26

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 27

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 27

Commodity Strategy 29

Ferrous Metals: 29

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 29

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 30

Non-Ferrous Metals: 32

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 32

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 33

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 34

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 35

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 36

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 38

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

Competitive Landscape 41

      Table: Ezz Steel Facilities 41

      Table: MENA - Largest Metal Companies 43

Company Profile 44

Ezz Steel 44

      Table: Ezz Steel - Financial Data 46

Methodology 47

Cross Checks 47

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