We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11

      Table: Australia - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15

      Table: Australia - Steel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 16

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 17

      Table: Australia - Refined Aluminium Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 21

Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 22

      Table: Australia - Refined Nickel Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25

Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 25

      Table: Australia - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 28

Regulatory Development 29

Tax Regime 29

      Table: Australia - Political Summary 30

Commodities Forecast 31

Commodity Strategy 31

Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 33

Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 33

Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 34

Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 36

Zinc: Channelling Support 38

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 39

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 40

Commodities Forecast 41

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 41

      Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 49

Competitive Landscape 50

      Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 51

Company Profile 52

Arrium 52

      Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 56

Rio Tinto 57

Company Overview 59

Company Strategy 60

Latest Financial Results 61

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 62

Methodology 63

Cross Checks 63

冶金工业信息标准研究院