The outlook for Italy's metals sector is far from encouraging, as a combination of cheap Chinese imports, low domestic demand and few project expansions mean that growth in consumption and production will be sluggish over the period to 2018. However, we expect Italy to retain its position as the EU's second largest steelmaking country, with a 16% share of production and the status of a new producer.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Metals SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 12

Steel: Few Positive Signs As Production Flatlines 12

Production: Plethora Of Issues To Deter Growth 14

Some Respite For Margins 15

Consumption: Muted Growth As Economy Flatlines 15

      Table: Italy's Steel Production And Consumption, 2009-2018 ('000 tonnes) 16

      Table: Italy's Steel Industry - Historical Data, 2004-2011 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 16

Commodities Forecast 18

Monthly Metals Update 18

Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 20

Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 20

Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 21

Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 23

Zinc: Channelling Support 25

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 27

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 27

Steel Price Forecast 28

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 28

Short-Term Outlook 28

Core View 28

Global Steel Glut To Persist 29

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 29

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 31

Excessive Chinese Exports 32

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 33

Risks To Price Outlook 33

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 34

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 34

Competitive Landscape 36

      Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metals Producers 37

Company Profile 39

Alcoa 39

Recent Financial Data 42

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 43

Methodology 44

Cross Checks 44

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