Mozambique will be one of the major growth stories in the global mining sector, as a combination of investment into the country's sizeable coal reserves and a relatively strong business environment coalesce to provide rapid growth in output. We expect the value of the country's mining sector to grow from USD259mn in 2012 to USD796mn in 2018, and increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.8% in 2018.

BMI Industry View 7

      Table: Mozambique - Key New Projects 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Coal: Mozambique To Become Global Growth Driver 11

India Takes An Interest 13

      Table: Mozambique - Largest New Coal Projects 14

Infrastructure A Downside Risk 14

Heightened Political Risk in Q413 15

      Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecast 15

Gold: Lacklustre Growth Ahead 15

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 16

      Table: Mozambique - Gold Production 17

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 18

Botswana On Top 19

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 20

South Africa: Still Ranking Highly 20

Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 21

Risk/Reward Ratings 23

Rewards 23

Industry Rewards 23

Country Rewards 23

Risks 24

Industry Risks 24

Country Risks 24

      Table: Mozambique - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts 25

Regulatory Development 26

Recent Developments 26

Recent Developments Give Cause For Concern 26

Current Mining Law 26

Greater Environmental Concerns & Social Impact Considerations 27

Tax Regime 27

Corruption To Remain Key Concern 28

      Table: Mozambique - Political Overview 28

      Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 29

Commodities Forecast 31

Commodity Strategy 31

Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 31

Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 33

Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 34

Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 35

Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 36

Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 37

Tin: In A Sweet Spot 38

Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 39

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

Competitive Landscape 42

      Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 43

Company Profile 44

Rio Tinto 44

Company Overview 46

Company Strategy 47

Latest Financial Results 48

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 49

Vale 49

Company Overview 51

Company Strategy 52

Recent Financial Performance 53

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 54

Company Details 54

Regional Overview 55

Mining - Africa Overview 55

Key Opportunities 55

      1. West Africa To Become Focal Point Of Growth 55

      2. Asian Investment Undeterred By Cooling Boom 57

      3. Coal Exports Set To Surge In The South 58

Key Challenges 59

      1. Sluggish Infrastructure Improvements To Weigh On Growth 59

      2. Gold Price Weakness Portends Pain 60

      3. Divergent Regulatory Trends To Play Out 61

      Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments 62

Global Industry Overview 64

Challenges 64

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 68

Cause For Optimism 71

Methodology 78

Industry Forecast Methodology 78

Sources 79

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 80

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 82

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