Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 8

Metals SWOT 8

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: More Pain Ahead 10

      Table: Germany - Crude Steel Production And Consumption, 2008-2017 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 14

      Table: Germany - Crude Steel Production, 2003-2011 ('000 tonnes) 15

Aluminium: Low Prices To Constrain Sector 16

      Table: Germany - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption And Balance, 2008-2017 ('000 tonnes) 17

Copper: Sector To Struggle 18

      Table: Germany - Refined Copper Production, Consumption And Balance, 2008-2017 ('000 tonnes) 21

Regulatory Development 22

      Table: Political Overview 26

Commodities Forecast 27

Commodity Strategy 27

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 28

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 29

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 29

Copper: Continued Weakening 31

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 31

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 32

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 33

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 34

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 35

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 36

Commodities Forecast 37

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 37

      Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 45

Competitive Landscape 46

      Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers 47

Company Profile 48

ArcelorMittal 48

Company Strategy 51

Company Details 52

Financial Data 53

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 53

Aurubis AG 54

      Table: Aurubis - Key Financial Data 56

ThyssenKrupp 58

      Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data, 2007-2012 60

Methodology 62

Cross Checks 62

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