Canada's economic exposure to both the US and Mexico will enable output growth in its metals industry to 2018, particularly as the majority of Canadian metal production is exported. Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in both countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover, a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian metals exporters.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 11

Metals SWOT 11

Industry Forecast 13

Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead 13

Production To Lag Consumption 14

Consumption To Remain Supported 15

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018) 16

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Canada 2005-2012) 16

Aluminium: Labour Disputes To Affect Production 17

Country To Remain Top Producer 18

Majority Of Aluminium To Be Exported 19

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018) 20

Nickel: Uncertainty Over External Demand & Concentrate Supply 20

Indonesia To Present Upside For Canada 22

      Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship To Remain Priorities 24

Tax Regime 25

      Table: Canada Political Overview 25

Commodities Forecast 27

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 27

Short-Term Outlook 27

Core View 28

Surplus Set To Slim 28

Production: Reining In Growth 29

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 31

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 33

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 33

Risks To Price Outlook 34

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 35

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 35

Commodity Strategy 37

Ferrous Metals: 37

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 37

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 38

Non-Ferrous Metals: 40

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 40

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 41

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 42

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 43

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 44

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 46

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 47

Competitive Landscape 49

      Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies 49

Company Profile 51

US Steel 51

Recent Financial Results 53

      Table: US Steel - Key Financial Data 54

ArcelorMittal 55

Company Overview 57

Company Strategy 57

Latest Financial Results 59

Company Details 59

Financial Data 59

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 59

Rio Tinto 60

Company Overview 62

Company Strategy 63

Latest Financial Results 64

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 65

Methodology 66

Cross Checks 66

冶金工业信息标准研究院