We forecast modest growth in the Egyptian steel sector over the coming years, in line with our outlook for the wider economy. We are taking into account the influence of the weak Egyptian pound on the sector and whether depreciation is sufficient to compete in an over-supplied regional market. We expect the worsening political situation to weigh on growth.

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT 7

Metals SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 9

Steel: Need For Imports To Fill The Deficit 9

      Table: Egypt - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 12

      Table: Egypt - Steel Production Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 13

Regulatory Development 14

Tax Regime 14

Corruption: A Key Concern 14

      Table: Egypt - Political Overview 15

Commodities Forecast 17

Commodity Strategy 17

Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 19

Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 19

Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 20

Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 22

Zinc: Channelling Support 24

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 25

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 26

Commodities Forecast 27

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 27

      Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 35

Competitive Landscape 36

      Table: Ezz Steel Facilities 36

      Table: MENA - Largest Metal Companies 37

Company Profile 39

Ezz Steel 39

      Table: Ezz Steel - Financial Data 41

Methodology 42

Cross Checks 42

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