The outlook for Iran's steel sector remains poor; however, there are a few signs of light given the election of Hassan Rouhani and possible moderation in tone towards the West. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term.

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 8

Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions 8

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 11

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 12

Regulatory Development 13

Tax Regime 13

      Table: Iran - Political Overview 14

Commodities Forecast 15

Steel Price Forecast 15

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 15

      Table: Steel Forecast 23

Commodities Forecast 24

Iron Ore: Rally To Fade In Q413 25

Steel: Supply Glut To Endure 26

Aluminium: Surge Gives Way 27

Copper: Weak Outlook 28

Lead: Short-Term Weakness 29

Nickel: Still The Laggard 30

Zinc: Still A Surplus Market 33

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 34

      Table: Global Commodities Strategy 35

Competitive Landscape 36

Little Room For Newcomers As Sanctions Bite 36

      Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2012) 36

      Table: Largest Listed Metal Producers In Middle East 39

Company Profile 40

Mobarakeh Steel Company 40

Methodology 42

Cross Checks 42

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