We expect solid metals consumption growth in Brazil through 2018 on the back of the automotive, construction and infrastructure sectors, among others. Despite delays in infrastructure spending under the Growth Acceleration Programme, we see an uptick in construction activity in H214 and 2015, which should drive both production and consumption higher.

BMI Industry View 7

Upside In 2015 Onward 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace 11

Consumption To Remain Subdued in 2014 11

Production Recovery By Mid-Decade 13

      Table: Brazil - Crude Steel Production, Consumption, Growth and Balance ('000 tonnes) 14

      Table: Brazil - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2012 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 14

Aluminium: Cheaper Electricity To Spur Production 14

Electricity Prices Pose Challenge To Production Growth 15

Consumption To Fare Better 17

      Table: Brazil - Aluminium Consumption And Production, ('000 tonnes) 18

Copper: Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 19

Production Growth To Lag Consumption 20

      Table: Brazil - Copper Consumption And Production ('000 tonnes) 20

Regulatory Development 21

Tax Regime 21

Corruption Remains Vexing 22

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 22

Commodities Forecast 24

Commodity Strategy 24

Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook 26

Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist 27

Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet 28

Lead: Outperformance On The Cards 29

Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead 30

Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue 32

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 33

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 34

Steel Price Forecast 34

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 34

Short-Term Outlook 35

Core View 35

Global Steel Glut To Persist 36

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 36

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 38

Excessive Chinese Exports 39

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 40

Risks To Price Outlook 40

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 41

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 41

Competitive Landscape 43

      Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil, FY2013 43

Domestic Costs Weigh On Energy-Intensive Industry 44

Company Profile 45

Gerdau 45

Recent Financial Performance 46

      Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 47

Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 48

Recent Financial Performance 50

      Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 50

Vale 52

Company Overview 54

Company Strategy 55

Recent Financial Performance 56

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 57

Company Details 57

Methodology 58

Cross Checks 58

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