We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 15

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012) 15

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 19

Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 20

      Table: Refined Nickel Production 23

Regulatory Development 24

Tax Regime 24

      Table: Australia - Political Summary 25

Commodities Forecast 26

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 26

Short-Term Outlook 26

Core View 27

Surplus Set To Slim 27

Production: Reining In Growth 28

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 30

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 32

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 32

Risks To Price Outlook 33

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 34

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 34

Commodity Strategy 36

Ferrous Metals: 36

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 36

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 37

Non-Ferrous Metals: 39

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 39

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 40

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 41

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 42

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 43

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 45

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 47

Competitive Landscape 48

      Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 49

Company Profile 50

Arrium 50

      Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 53

Rio Tinto 54

Company Overview 56

Company Strategy 57

Latest Financial Results 58

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 60

Methodology 61

Cross Checks 61

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