BMI forecasts a 4.6% drop in vehicle sales in 2014, as we expect the passenger car and CV segments to remain weak over the coming year.
We forecast a 6% decline in passenger car sales in 2014, as the broader slowdown in consumer spending and higher car sales taxes impacts the segment. In 2014, BMI expects to see 2.3% growth in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, a slowdown from strong growth in recent years and a 15% drop in heavy truck sales. This relatively bearish outlook is due to the expected broader slowdown in the construction industry and ending of government tax incentives.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 8

SWOT Analysis 8

Political 9

Economic 10

Business Environment 11

Industry Forecast 12

      Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018) 12

Sales 12

Production 14

Passenger Cars 15

      Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018) 15

Company News 18

Commercial Vehicles 23

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018) 23

Light Commercial Vehicles 23

      Table: Brazil LCV Segment 25

Heavy Trucks 25

Buses And Coaches 27

Motorcycles 29

      Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2018) 29

      Table: Brazil Motorcycle Sales By Brand 31

Suppliers 31

Macroeconomic Forecasts 33

      Table: Brazil - Economic Activity 38

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 39

      Table: Americas Risk Reward Ratings 42

Company Profile 43

Industry Trend Analysis 43

Regional Overview 46

Industry Trend Analysis 46

      Table: Argentina Sources Of Autos Financing 47

Global Industry Overview 54

      Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs) 54

Outperformers Boost European Outlook 54

Trucks Give North America A Lift 55

India Brings Relief To BRICs 57

Demographic Forecast 59

      Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 60

      Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 61

      Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 62

      Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 62

Methodology 63

Industry Forecasts 63

Sector-Specific Methodology 64

Sources 64

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 65

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 66

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