Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest and predominantly driven by increased coal output. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to weigh on growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

BMI Industry View 7

Downside Risks 7

New Entrants 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Coal: Solid Growth Over Coming Years 10

New Projects 11

More IPOs Ahead 12

      Table: Poland - Coal Production 12

Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 13

Weak Copper Prices Constitute Greatest Downside Risk 14

      Table: Poland - Copper Production Forecast 15

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16

Greatest Rewards In The East 16

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 16

Regulatory Stranglehold In Germany; Rising Risks In The Nordics 17

Corruption & Infrastructure To Remain Key Risks In Russia & Ukraine 17

Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards 18

Country Highlights 19

Russia: Mineral Wealth Fails To Hide Risks 19

Kazakhstan: Weak Infrastructure Restrains Growth Potential 20

Market Overview 21

Lead, Zinc & Silver 23

Potential For Labour Unrest 23

      Table: Poland - Mining Industry Value And Production Forecasts 23

Regulatory Development 24

Tax Regime 25

      Table: Political Overview 25

      Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook . 26

Commodities Forecast 28

Commodity Strategy 28

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 29

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 30

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 30

Copper: Continued Weakening 32

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 32

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 33

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 34

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 36

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 37

Competitive Landscape 38

      Table: Poland - Major Mining & Metals Companies - Financial Data . 39

Company Profile 40

KGHM 40

      Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data 44

Jastrzębska Spolka Węglowa (JSW) 45

      Table: JSW - Key Financial Data 48

Regional Overview 49

Europe Overview 49

      1. Coal Production Growth Confined To The East 49

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 50

      3. Greater Regulation On The Horizon 53

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 53

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 54

Global Industry Overview 55

Global Overview 55

Downturn To Continue Into 2014 55

      1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 55

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 56

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 58

But Opportunities Still Exist 60

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 60

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 62

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 63

Methodology 66

Industry Forecast Methodology 66

Sources 67

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 68

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 69

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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