We expect Germany's mining industry value to grow modestly, averaging 2.8% growth y-o-y from an estimated USD5.8bn in 2014 to USD6.8bn in 2018. Despite government efforts to switch to renewable energy sources for power generation, brown coal will remain a crucial fuel over coming years. As a consequence, lignite mining will endure in Germany over our forecast period to 2018.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Coal: Lignite Mining To Fight Back 10

Investment Continues To Be Forthcoming 11

Regional Employment A Considerable Factor 11

Cheap Coal Import Threat 12

ETS Reform Risk 13

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Germany 2010-2018) 14

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 15

Risk/Reward Ratings 15

Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind 16

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 17

Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter 17

Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 18

Rewards 18

Industry Rewards 18

Country Rewards 18

Risks 19

Industry Risks 19

Country Risks 20

      Table: Germany - Mine Production & % Growth 20

Regulatory Development 21

Tax Regime 21

Corruption 22

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 22

Commodities Forecast 24

Commodity Strategy 24

Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 24

Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 26

Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 27

Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 28

Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 29

Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 30

Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 32

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 34

Competitive Landscape 35

      Table: Germany - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies 35

Company Profile 37

Recylex 37

      Table: Recylex - Key Financial Data 38

RWE AG 40

      Table: RWE - Financial Results 42

Regional Overview 43

Europe Overview 43

      1. Coal Production Growth Mainly In The East, But Upside In Germany 43

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 45

      3. More Stringent Regulation On The Horizon 47

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 47

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 48

      5. Public Opposition To Present Major Downside Risk 49

Global Industry Overview 50

Challenges 50

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 54

Cause For Optimism 57

Methodology 64

Industry Forecast Methodology 64

Sources 65

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 66

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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