Brazil's mining sector will experience slower average growth in 2014-2018 compared with previous years, primarily on account of slowing Chinese demand growth for metal ores. Nevertheless, mine production will still see growth as both domestic and foreign miners continue to exploit the country's significant reserves of both industrial and precious metals.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 11

Bauxite: Growth Despite Market Weakness 11

Foreign Firms To Dominate Production 11

Risks To Outlook 12

      Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018) 13

Gold: Brazil To See Small Gains 13

      Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects 13

      Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018) 14

Iron Ore: Growth To Continue Despite Weakening Chinese Demand 15

Vale To Dominate Sector 15

Risks To Outlook 18

      Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018) 19

Nickel: Growth To Continue 19

      Table: Brazil - Key Nickel Projects 20

Indonesian Policy To Encourage Production 20

      Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018) 20

Tin: Brazil To Capture Larger Share Of Market 21

Risks To Outlook 22

      Table: Tin Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018) 22

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 23

Risk/Reward Ratings 23

Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top 24

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 25

Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back 25

Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back 26

Risk/Reward Ratings 26

Rewards 27

Industry Rewards 27

Country Rewards 27

Risks 28

Industry Risks 28

Country Risks 29

      Table: Brazil - Mining Production & Growth 29

Regulatory Development 30

Recent Developments 30

Sector To Remain Promising, But Regulatory Hindrances To Remain 30

Potential Royalties Would Present Challenges, Though Not Game Changer 30

Licensing & Permitting Challenges To Remain 31

Tax Regime 32

Corruption To Persist 32

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 32

      Table: Regional Regulatory Ratings 33

Commodities Forecast 35

Commodity Strategy 35

Ferrous Metals: 35

Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 35

Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 36

Non-Ferrous Metals: 38

Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 38

Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 39

Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 40

Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 41

Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 42

Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 44

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 45

Competitive Landscape 47

      Table: Financial Data For Key Firms Listed In Brazil 47

Foreign Firms Look Beyond Iron Ore 48

Golden Opportunities Tarnished By Lower Prices 48

Company Profile 49

Alcoa 49

Recent Financial Data 52

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 53

Anglo American 54

Company Strategy 57

Latest Results 58

      Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 59

Vale 60

Company Overview 62

Company Strategy 63

Recent Financial Performance 64

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 65

Company Details 65

Regional Overview 66

Americas Overview 66

      1. Mexico & Peru To Outperform 66

      2. Potential Policy Impacts In The South 67

      Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates 68

      3. Downward Pressures On Capex To Persist 69

      4. North American Growth Opportunities To Remain Limited 70

      5. Central America & Caribbean To Lag Northern & Southern Neighbours 73

Global Industry Overview 75

Challenges 75

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 79

Cause For Optimism 82

Methodology 89

Industry Forecast Methodology 89

Sources 90

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 91

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 93

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