We forecast Peru's mining sector will grow steadily over the coming years, driven primarily by investment in both base and precious metals. We therefore expect Peru's mining sector will grow an average of 4.4% a year through to 2017, reaching a value of US$23.1bn. Various projects remain in early development and construction phases, and the sector presents promising growth opportunities for miners of a wide array of minerals.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 12

Copper: Growth Ahead Despite Environmental Concerns 12

Output Growth To Continue 13

      Table: Peru - Major Copper Projects In Development 14

Weak Prices Present Downside Risk 14

Protests Remain Ongoing Issue 15

      Table: Peru - Copper Production 16

Gold: Prospects Tarnished By Protests 16

Protests & Prices May Discourage Investment 17

      Table: Peru - Gold Production 18

Lead: Modest Growth In Coming Years 19

Potential Complications 20

      Table: Peru - Lead Production 20

Silver: Peru To Coninue To Lead Output 21

      Table: Peru - Key Silver Projects 22

Large Projects To Face Increasing Scrutiny 22

      Table: Peru - Silver Production 23

Tin: Production Declines To Continue 23

Mixed Outlook For Minsur 24

      Table: Peru - Tin Production 25

Zinc: Mixed Outlook Despite Production Growth 25

      Table: Peru - Key Zinc Projects 27

Optimistic, Though Cautious, Outlook 27

      Table: Peru - Zinc Production Forecast 28

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 29

Americas - Q1 2014 29

      Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 29

Local Opposition Remains Potent 30

Royalty Threat 30

Country Highlights 31

Chile: Despite Rating, Potential Vulnerabilities 31

Canada: Solid Developed World Destination 32

United States: Slow Growing Giant 32

Peru: Strong Prospects But Protests Maintain Pressure 33

Colombia: Coal Holds Promise 33

Brazil: Complexities Abound 34

Mexico: Domestic Fundamentals Favourable, For Now 34

Argentina: Clear Potential Amid High Risks 35

Central America: Frontier Market Opportunities? 35

Market Overview 36

      Table: Peru - Select Future Projects 38

Growth To Continue Despite Subdued Prices 38

Mining Sector Remains Driver Of Growth 39

      Table: Peru - Mining Industry Value And Production 41

Regulatory Development 42

Recent Developments 42

Managing Mining 42

Tax Regime 43

Endemic Corruption 43

      Table: Peru - Political Overview 44

      Table: Regional Regulatory Ratings 45

Commodities Forecast 47

Commodity Strategy 47

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 48

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 49

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 49

Copper: Continued Weakening 51

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 51

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 52

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 53

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 54

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 55

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 56

Competitive Landscape 57

      Table: Financial Data - Key Mining Firms Listed In Peru 58

Precious Metals To Face Mixed 2014 58

Central Government At Odds With Locals 59

Company Profile 60

Buenaventura 60

Latest Financial Results 62

      Table: Buenaventura - Key Financial Data 62

First Quantum 63

Latest Financial Results 65

      Table: First Quantum: Key Financial Data 66

Glencore Xstrata - Q1 2014 67

      Table: Glencore Xstrata - Key Financial Data 71

Grupo México 72

Latest Financial Results 74

      Table: Grupo México - Key Financial Data 74

Regional Overview 76

Americas Overview 76

      1. Slowdown To Resume After Recent Uptick 76

      2. Capex Outlook Remains Mixed 77

      3. US & Canada To Lag Southern Peers 78

      4. Growing, Though Still Limited Opportunity In Central America 80

      Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects 81

      5. Growth In US Coal Exports Unlikely To Stem Industry Woes 82

      6. Political Risks Remain At Forefront 83

Global Industry Overview 85

Global Overview 85

Downturn To Continue Into 2014 85

      1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 85

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 86

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 88

But Opportunities Still Exist 90

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 90

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 92

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 93

Methodology 96

Industry Forecast Methodology 96

Sources 97

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 98

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 99

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 100

冶金工业信息标准研究院