Bulgaria's mining sector will remain a relatively small mineral producer in Eastern Europe focused primarily on supplying domestic industry. We forecast minimal production growth over the next five years. Bulgaria's mining sector value will grow very slightly from USD1.0bn in 2013 to USD1.1bn in 2018. The country's main mineral commodities are coal and copper, with additional production of zinc, lead and gold.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Copper: Modest Growth Ahead 10

      Table: Bulgaria - Copper Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 12

Coal: Minimal Growth From Sole Miner 12

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Bulgaria 2010-2018) 14

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 15

Risk/Reward Ratings 15

Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind 16

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 17

Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter 17

Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 18

Rewards 18

Industry Rewards 18

Country Rewards 18

Risks 19

Industry Risks 19

Country Risks 19

      Table: Bulgaria - Mineral Production Forecasts 20

Regulatory Development 21

Tax Regime 21

Limited Success In Corruption Battle 22

Commodities Forecast 23

Commodity Strategy 23

Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 23

Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 25

Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 26

Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 27

Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 28

Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 29

Tin: In A Sweet Spot 30

Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 31

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 32

Competitive Landscape 34

Company Profile 35

Assarel Medet 35

Chelopech Mining 37

Regional Overview 39

Europe Overview 39

      1. Coal Production Growth Mainly In The East, But Upside In Germany 39

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 41

      3. More Stringent Regulation On The Horizon 43

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 43

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 44

      5. Public Opposition To Present Major Downside Risk 45

Global Industry Overview 46

Challenges 46

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 50

Cause For Optimism 53

Methodology 60

Industry Forecast Methodology 60

Sources 61

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 62

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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