Metals consumption growth in Brazil will be driven by the automotives, construction and infrastructure sectors as spending on fixed asset investment under Brazil's Growth Acceleration Programme accelerates into 2014. We note, however, that persistent delays are likely to lead to consumption weakness in the short term. More broadly, we foresee metals demand growth on the back of our forecast for 3.2% economic growth on average per annum from 2014 to 2017, with growth accelerating over the period.

BMI Industry View 7

Consumption To Exceed Production 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace 11

Consumption: Short-Term Weakness 11

Production: More Pain Before Recovery 13

Real Relief For Exporters 14

      Table: Brazil - Crude Steel Production, Consumption And Growth, ('000 tonnes) 15

      Table: Brazil - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2012 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15

Aluminium: Cheaper Electricity To Spur Production 16

Electricity Prices Will Remain An Issue 16

Strong Growth In Consumption 18

      Table: Brazil - Aluminium Consumption And Production, ('000 tonnes) 20

Copper: Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 21

Production Growth To Continue 22

      Table: Brazil - Copper Consumption And Production ('000 tonnes) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Tax Regime 24

Corruption Remains Vexing 24

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 25

Commodities Forecast 27

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 27

      Table: Steel Forecast 35

Commodity Strategy 35

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 36

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 38

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 38

Copper: Continued Weakening 40

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 40

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 41

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 42

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 43

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 44

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 45

Competitive Landscape 46

      Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil, FY2012 46

Energy Costs Affect Aluminium And Steel 47

Company Profile 48

Gerdau 48

Latest Financial Results 49

      Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 50

Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 51

Recent Financial Performance 53

      Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 53

Vale - Q1 2014 54

Company Overview 56

Company Strategy 57

Recent Financial News 58

Company Details 59

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 60

Methodology 61

Cross Checks 61

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