We forecast Mexico's mining sector will see steady growth through 2018 as mining companies continue to invest in both base and precious metals mining projects. We forecast the value of Mexico's mining sector to grow to USD16.9bn by 2018, representing average annual growth of 2.7%. The sector will benefit from a stable business environment, though mining royalties pose a downside risk.

BMI Industry View 7

Risks To Outlook 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Copper: Market Still Ripe For Expansion 11

Output Still Set To Grow Despite Weaker Prices 12

      Table: Mexico - Selected Planned Copper Mines 13

Risks To Outlook 13

      Table: Copper Production Forecast (Mexico 2010-2018) 14

Silver: New Projects To Maintain Strong Sector Growth 14

Strong Project Pipeline Enables Growth 15

      Table: Mexico - Silver Projects 15

Risks Now To Downside 16

      Table: Silver Production (Mexico 2010-2018) 17

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18

Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top 19

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 19

Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back 20

Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back 21

Risk/Reward Ratings 21

Rewards 21

Industry Rewards 21

Country Rewards 21

Risks 22

Industry Risks 22

Country Risks 23

      Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Mexico 2010-2018) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Recent Developments 24

Solid Business Environment But Royalties Cloud Picture 24

Tax Regime 25

Corruption Remains Vexing But Progress To Continue 25

      Table: Table: Political Overview 26

      Table: Regional Regulatory Index 27

Commodities Forecast 28

Commodity Strategy 28

Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 28

Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 30

Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 31

Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 32

Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 33

Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 34

Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 36

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 38

Competitive Landscape 39

Grupo Mexico Leads Sector 39

      Table: Mexico - Competitive Landscape 39

Precious Metals Miners Proliferate Sector 39

Company Profile 41

Industrias Penoles 41

      Table: Industrias Penoles - Key Financial Data 42

Grupo México 44

      Table: Grupo México - Key Financial Data 46

Regional Overview 48

Americas Overview 48

      1. Mexico & Peru To Outperform 48

      2. Potential Policy Impacts In The South 49

      Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates 50

      3. Downward Pressures On Capex To Persist 51

      4. North American Growth Opportunities To Remain Limited 52

      5. Central America & Caribbean To Lag Northern & Southern Neighbours 55

Global Industry Overview 57

Challenges 57

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 61

Cause For Optimism 64

Methodology 71

Industry Forecast Methodology 71

Sources 72

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 73

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

冶金工业信息标准研究院