We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 15

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012) 15

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 19

Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 19

      Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (Australia 2010-2018) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Tax Regime 24

      Table: Australia - Political Summary 25

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26

Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will 26

Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices 28

Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak 29

Copper: All Eyes On China 30

Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers 31

Nickel: Monthly Outperformer 33

Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field 34

Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 36

Steel Price Forecast 37

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 37

Short-Term Outlook 37

Core View 37

Global Steel Glut To Persist 38

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 39

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 40

Excessive Chinese Exports 42

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 42

Risks To Price Outlook 43

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 44

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 45

Competitive Landscape 46

      Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 47

Company Profile 48

Arrium 48

      Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 52

Rio Tinto 53

Company Overview 55

Company Strategy 56

Latest Financial Results 57

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 58

Methodology 59

Cross Checks 59

冶金工业信息标准研究院