Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest and predominantly driven by increased coal output. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to weigh on growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

BMI Industry View 7

Downside Risks 7

New Entrants 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Coal: Solid Growth Over Coming Years 10

New Projects 11

More IPOs Ahead 12

      Table: Poland - Coal Production 13

Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 13

Weak Copper Prices Constitute Greatest Downside Risk 15

      Table: Poland - Copper Production Forecast 15

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16

Russia On Top; Kazakhstan Not Far Behind 16

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 16

Nordics Lagging 17

Reward Paucity In Germany 17

Corruption & Infrastructure To Remain Key Risks In Russia & Ukraine 18

Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards 19

Market Overview 20

Lead, Zinc & Silver 22

Potential For Labour Unrest 22

      Table: Poland - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts 22

Regulatory Development 23

Tax Regime 24

      Table: Political Overview 24

      Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook 25

Commodities Forecast 27

Commodity Strategy 27

Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook 29

Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist 30

Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet 31

Lead: Outperformance On The Cards 32

Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead 33

Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 36

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 37

Competitive Landscape 38

      Table: Poland - Major Mining & Metals Companies - Financial Data 39

Company Profile 40

KGHM 40

      Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data 43

Jastrzębska Spolka Węglowa (JSW) 45

      Table: JSW - Key Financial Data 47

Regional Overview 49

Europe Overview 49

      1. Coal Production Growth Mainly In The East 49

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 51

      3. Greater Regulation On The Horizon 53

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 53

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 54

      5. Public Opposition To Present Major Downside Risk 55

Global Industry Overview 56

Methodology 68

Industry Forecast Methodology 68

Sources 69

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 70

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 72

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

冶金工业信息标准研究院