The rocus or this report is on current market events and the medium term (2014-2019) while Appendix A provides a long term outlook for supply, demand and prices to 2039. CRU has identified a number of issues which have characterised the market and will influence the outlook, namely:
Tight supply availability but little spot demand keeps prices flat in Ql 2015. Limited spot demand for acid counteracts the potential price-inflating effects of tight supply in East Asia and Europe. Sulphur price increases re-established the price differential to imported acid which has helped to keep prices stable.
Fertilizer-based acid demand improving further. Growth rates are forecast to remain strong in 2015-2016 as new capacity ramps up to meet improving product demand. In the phosphates sector, strong production has been seen in China, India and North Africa whilst capacity closures and production cuts in the USA have cut sulphuric acid demand.
South American markets forecast to grow in 2015. Acid demand in Chile and Brazil is forecast to increase in 2015. Chilean demand growth is due to project commissioning in H2 2015 which will boost acid demand to 2016. However, beyond this point a decline in consumption is forecast as a result of operation closures. Brazilian growth is due to recovery of depressed operating rates at SSP plants.
New export-oriented smelter based acid supply is forecast to enter the market from 2016. New capacity in the Philippines is forecast to be integrated into the existing facility in Q2 2015 which is expected to result in increased exports of acid from 2016. Iranian smelter capacity is due to commission in 2016-2017 with exports to India a likely trade flow. Indonesian smelter capacity growth has been slow to be confirmed but is expected by 2018. However, new capacity is expected to cut Indonesian acid import demand as opposed to triggering large scale exports.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 11

1.1 Global Sulphuric Acid Consumption 11

      1.1.1 Summary of key changes 11

      1.1.2 Global Overview 12

1.2 Phosphoric Acid 12

      1.2.1 Regional Market Forecast 13

1.3 Ammonium Sulphate 15

      1.3.1 Regional Market Forecasts 15

1.4 SSP 16

      1.4.1 Regional Market Forecasts 17

1.5 Copper SX-EW 18

      1.5.1 Regional Market Forecasts 19

1.6 Nickel 20

      1.6.1 Regional Market Forecasts 21

1.7 Uranium 21

      1.7.1 Regional Market Forecasts 22

1.8 Industrial Demand 23

Chapter 2 - Supply 27

2.1 Global Sulphuric Acid supply 27

      2.1.1 Summary of Key Changes 27

      2.1.2 Global overview 28

2.2 Sulphur-burnt Acid 30

      2.2.1 Regional Market Forecasts 31

2.3 Smelter Acid 33

      2.3.1 Regional Market Forecasts 34

2.4 Pyrites 37

      2.4.1 Regional Market Forecasts 38

2.5 Other Sources of Sulphuric Acid 38

      2.5.1 Regional Market Forecasts 39

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance and Prices 41

3.1 Trade 41

      3.1.1 Introduction 41

      3.1.2 Recent developments: Imports 41

      3.1.3 Recent developments: Exports 43

3.2 Trade Outlook 45

      3.2.1 Introduction 45

      3.2.2 Global Trade Outlook 45

      3.2.3 Regional Trade Forecast 45

3.3 Prices 50

      3.3.1 Recent Price Developments 50

      3.3.2 Price Outlook to 2019 52

      3.3.3 Sulphuric Acid Price Outlook 53

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the Sulphuric Acid Market 57

A.1 Introduction 58

A.2 Long term demand for sulphuric acid 59

A.3 Long Term Outlook for Supply 62

A.4 Sulphur-burnt sulphuric acid gap analysis 64

A.5 CRU's LRMC methodology 65

A.6 Long Term trend price for sulphuric Acid 66

A.7 Calculating the LRMC for sulphuric acid 68

A.8 Escalation and Forecast of the LRMC 72

A.9 Long-run marginal cost forecast, 2013-2039 74

A.10 Risks to the Outlook 77

Appendix B - Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 79

B.1 Overview 79

B.2 Exchange rates 84

      B.2.1 Another day, another dollar rise 84

      B.2.2 Russia's rouble collapses 84

      B.2.3 Rupiah stabilises following emerging market sell-off 84

      B.2.4 People's Bank limiting RMB's fall 84

      B.2.5 Greek worries a negative for the euro 85

B.3 Macroeconomic outlook 86

B.4 Scenario 95

      B.4.1 Upside: Lower oil - market struggles to find the bottom of the barrel 95

      B.4.2 Downside: Eurozone deflation and stagnation 96

Appendix C - Sulphuric Acid Consumption by Country and Sector,2012-2019 99

Appendix D - Sulphuric Acid Production by Country and Sector,2012-2019 111

Appendix E - World and Regional Sulphuric Acid Balance,2012-2019 119

Appendix F - Sulphuric Acid Imports, 2012-2019 127

Appendix G - Sulphuric Acid Exports, 2012-2019 131

Appendix H - Sulphuric Acid Trade, 2013 135

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