The outlook for Iran's steel sector remains poor; however, there are a few signs of light given the election of Hassan Rouhani and possible moderation in tone towards the West, which could result in a reduction in sanctions on the metals sector. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions 10

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 13

      Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) 14

Regulatory Development 15

Corruption 15

Tax Regime 15

      Table: Iran - Political Overview 15

Commodities Forecast 17

Commodity Strategy 17

Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will 17

Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices 19

Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak 20

Copper: All Eyes On China 21

Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers 22

Nickel: Monthly Outperformer 24

Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field 25

Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely 26

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 27

Steel Price Forecast 28

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 28

Short-Term Outlook 28

Core View 28

Global Steel Glut To Persist 29

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 30

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 31

Excessive Chinese Exports 33

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 33

Risks To Price Outlook 34

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 35

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 36

Competitive Landscape 37

      Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013) 37

      Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers 40

Company Profile 41

Mobarakeh Steel Company 41

Methodology 43

Cross Checks 43

冶金工业信息标准研究院