We forecast refined metal production and consumption growth in Brazil from 2014-2018, with the automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors being major drivers. While we maintain a constructive multi-year outlook, we expect 2014 will see relatively muted growth in the downstream metals sector on account of subdued private consumption and fixed-asset investment.

BMI Industry View 7

Stronger Sector Performance In 2015 Onward 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace 11

Consumption To See Multi-Quarter Weakness 11

Production Gains In Mid-Decade 13

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 14

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Brazil 2005-2012) 14

Aluminium: Cheaper Electricity To Spur Production 15

Electricity Prices Remain Top Challenge 15

Consumption Growth To Remain Stronger 17

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 18

Copper: Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 19

Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 20

      Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Brazil 2010-2018) 21

Regulatory Development 22

Tax Regime 22

Corruption To Persist 23

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 23

Commodities Forecast 25

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 25

Short-Term Outlook 25

Core View 26

Surplus Set To Slim 26

Production: Reining In Growth 27

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 29

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 31

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 31

Risks To Price Outlook 32

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 33

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 33

Commodity Strategy 35

Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 35

Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 37

Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 38

Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 39

Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 40

Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 41

Tin: In A Sweet Spot 42

Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 43

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 44

Competitive Landscape 46

      Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil 46

Metal Producers To Continue Grappling With Energy Costs 46

Company Profile 48

Gerdau 48

Recent Financial Performance 49

      Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 50

Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 51

Recent Financial Performance 53

      Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 53

Vale 55

Company Overview 57

Company Strategy 58

Recent Financial Performance 59

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 60

Company Details 60

Methodology 61

Cross Checks 61

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