Zambia's mining sector is set to continue on a positive trajectory over our forecast period to 2017. Copper is the mainstay of the mining sector, and we expect solid growth in output as the country's main producers forge ahead with expansion plans. Growing coal production will contribute to mining sector growth over coming years, as strong domestic demand for the fuel incentivizes increased mine output.

BMI Industry View 7

Downside Risks Lurk 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Copper: New Projects & Expansions To Come Online 11

Risks To Outlook 12

      Table: Zambia: Major New Copper Projects 14

      Table: Zambia - Copper Production 14

Coal: Solid Growth Over Forecast Period 14

      Table: Zambia - Coal Projects 16

Potential Pitfalls Ahead 17

      Table: Zambia - Coal Production 17

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 18

Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 18

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 19

Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 19

Mixed Rankings For West Africa 19

Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 20

Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 21

Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 21

Country Highlights 22

South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 22

Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 23

Botswana: All Round Outperformer 23

Market Overview 24

Zambia To Maintain Its Global Position 25

      Table: Zambia - Major Mining Projects & Expansions 26

Power Shortages To Weigh On Mining Sector 26

      Table: Zambia - Mining Industry Value & Production 27

Regulatory Development 28

Regulatory Environment 28

      Table: Zambia - Political Overview 30

      Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook 30

Commodities Forecast 32

Commodity Strategy 32

Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 33

Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 34

Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 34

Copper: Continued Weakening 36

Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 36

Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 37

Tin: Outperformance To Continue 38

Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 39

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 41

Competitive Landscape 42

Some Diversification 42

Major Players To Remain Dominant 42

      Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 43

Company Profile 44

Vedanta Resources - Q1 2014 44

      Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 48

First Quantum 49

Latest Financial Results 51

      Table: First Quantum: Key Financial Data 52

Regional Overview 53

Africa Overview 53

      1. Chinese Investment Inflows To Continue 53

      2. Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 54

      3. Regulatory Environment In Flux 55

      Table: Key Regulatory Developments 56

      4. Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 56

      5. Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 58

      6. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 59

Global Industry Overview 60

Global Overview 60

Downturn To Continue Into 2014 60

      1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 60

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 61

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 63

But Opportunities Still Exist 65

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 65

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 67

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 68

Methodology 71

Industry Forecast Methodology 71

Sources 72

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 73

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 74

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

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